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just to start some trouble (*warning*politics)

Mathachew

Wise Beyond Youth
#3
The "exit poll strategists" still say the polls were correct. Many polls leading to the election had Kerry in the lead and many on election day had him in the lead.

Fact: They were wrong.
Opinion: They were wanting to give the appearance that Kerry was winning.

In one case, the LA Times had a poll with Kerry having a substantial lead, but was later found to have been heavily slanted, with the majority polled beind Democrat and almost as many Independents as Republicans. I don't trust the mainstream media nor do I watch the mainstream media (couldn't even if I wanted to).

Simply put, the exit polls were wrong. Word of advice to people who do follow politics (for future referrence): don't buy too much into polls. Even when my candidate of choice was in the lead, I did not gloat, because I didn't buy it.
 

Perris Calderon

Moderator
Staff member
Political User
#4
marge, I'm having fun...I love political discussion

mathew;

exit polls are never wrong, they haven't been wrong...this is a little pecular to say the very least, especially with Florida being the state in question.

ok, carry on then
 

fimchick

OSNN Senior Addict
#9
LoL. Polls were wrong in 2000, and they were wrong in 2004 again. If that doesn't show you enough proof that they were wrong...then I don't know what evidence you need.
Btw, you do know that exit polls were completely concocted and run by the news media and have no official backing or weight, right? Therefore, they can't be wrong b/c they are never right to begin with! :p
 
#10
Left-wing CNN political analyst Bill Schneider and left-wing (also fairly unbiased and respected) pollster John Zogby said that exit polls are no longer reliable and they need to rethink how they take them.

Zogby himself said:
Bill Schneider, a CNN analyst and former Harvard University political science professor, agreed.

"The lesson here is put not your faith in exit polls . . . particularly if the exit poll is close," he said. "Exit polls are designed for analysis."

Karyn Barker, a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, said she thinks the exit polls are getting a bad rap. It's not the polls, she says, but how people use them.

"To assume that these numbers were spot-on was foolish," she said. "It seems some people, including me, wildly misinterpreted what they meant."

Zogby said Tuesday's exit-poll problem probably would send pollsters back to the drawing board to figure out whether they need to apply different formulas, models and weights to their surveys.

"There was a time you could go to the bank with the early exit polls," Zogby said. "Now we have a problem."
If one of the largest (if not the largest) poll-takers in America says there is a problem, then there is a problem.
 
#11
There's also another reason the exit polls were wrong. I have a number of friends who are diehard Democrats. They were, of course, Kerry fans... so I thought. Bring up a discussion and they were right on board with Kerry. The thing is they secretly voted for Bush and told me so. Not all Democrats care to admit or advertise that they voted for Bush. That in itself can skew "exit polls".

In short... let the votes speak for themselves and leave the exit poll rubbish where it belongs... right next to campaign promises that some people are just gullible enough to believe.

rotjong
 

Perris Calderon

Moderator
Staff member
Political User
#12
exit polls are never wrong, they've never been wrong

contrary to what some are suggesting on this thread, they weren't wrong in 2000, they were precise and correct

as far as rotjongs points, every election has those people that try to thwart exit polls accuracy...I suppose you didn't know any person that was republican that "secretly" voted for kerry as well.

to think that all of a sudden for this election, the exit poll has become incorrect, the very year they change election practices is optimistic at best.

we live in troublesome times, this is for sure
 
#14
perris said:
as far as rotjongs points, every election has those people that try to thwart exit polls accuracy...I suppose you didn't know any person that was republican that "secretly" voted for kerry as well.
You've twisted my words and extrapolated it beyond what it meant.

The people didn't "thwart" the exit polls. My point was there are people who don't wish to admit who they voted for publically. Saying polls are thwarting would mean people intentionally lied to cause a different effect while the fact was they were lying simply to protect the opinion of others on them. You may not agree but those two things are totally different reasons.

From what I explained with my friends the reason they voted secretly was because they, for some stupid reason, feared just admitting who they planned to vote for and will never just admit it to other friends I have. Why they had to lie I don't understand.

I voted for Bush and I explained my reasons simply and without getting into a long-winded debate. I respect my friends' opinions and they respected mine and that's likely why they even told me they voted for Bush and not Kerry while they didn't tell others.

Now, having said all of the above, I never said it was only the Democrats who would "secretly" vote outside their party. None of the people I personally know who are Republican and voted for Kerry had any issues with admitting it yet the Democrats I know who voted for Bush didn't want to admit it. Why not? I find this odd and somewhat humorous. So to answer your question no I do not know any people that voted secretly for Kerry if they were Republican because the stepped up and admitted it and they earned my respect.

This election cannot be compared to any election after Carter vs Ford and even that is not close to the current.

rotjong
 

Perris Calderon

Moderator
Staff member
Political User
#15
If you thought I meant to twist your words, I didn't

as far as your other points, I guess that's the difference withing the circles we respectively frequent.

Of those that I have conversation with with, there are absolutely no democrats that voted for Bush...none whatsoever, however, there are plenty of republicans that told me they secretly voted for Kerry but would never admit that to their republican associates.

these are simply the different circles we respectively frequent

your circle believes this president is fighting terrorism, my circle believes this presidents policies have helped terrorism and exacerbated the fight

I by the way am a registered republican.

go figure

as I said;

the point that some people deceive exit polls has nothing to do with the accuracy of exit polls...this is always a good portion of the equation...always.

exit polls have never been wrong...it's a little naive to think they are wrong for the first time in this election

we live in troublesome times, this is the least we can say
 
#16
perris said:
these are simply the different circles we respectively frequent
It would appear it, yes, lol.

perris said:
I by the way am a registered republican.
I'm a registered Democrat and have been for 13 years. I don't believe party affiliation can be compared to what it once was, though.

perris said:
we live in troublesome times, this is the least we can say
Troublesome times, indeed.

rotjong
 
#17
I have found it interesting that the largest difference between exit polls and the "real total" is that most were right on except ... you guessed it .. states using electronic voting machines (ie. Diebold, ect.) with no paper (audit) trail. Oh and oddly most of this happend in .. you guessed it .. "swing states".
 
#19
I'm sure that if your entire career revolves around your polls being believable, you would be the first to suggest foul play, yet even liberal pollsters like John Zogby don't suggest anything amiss. He questions his own poll. Is that not enough evidence? I just don't understand the amount of incredulity I'm seeing. Just because something hasn't happened doesn't mean it can't.

By the way, Perris, Rotjong: I'm getting the vibe that it's more about liberal/conservative than party affiliation these days. The once-democratic south finally showed its true colors--conservatism--in the last two elections. They didn't leave the party; the party left them.
 

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